Map and territory: risk, human nature and prediction problems. Greenpen A.

Alan Greenpensen, who headed the Council of Managers of the Federal Reserve System from 1987 to 2006, is one of the most authoritative economists of our time. His new book is devoted to the problem of forecasting the economy. He explores the existing systems of economic forecasting in search of an answer to the question why these economic models have not allowed to predict the crises of recent times. The author critically analyzes the fundamental assumptions related to risk management, and offers ways to update the conceptual basis of economics models in order to improve the quality of forecasts in the future. The fundamental work “map and territory” is the quintessence of the history of economic predictions, new works in the field of behavioral economy and the enormous professional experience of Grinspin itself. In Russian, the book is published in the new author’s edition of 2014. It is addressed to managers of all levels, financiers, investors and those who are interested in the problem of the reliability of economic forecasts and the causes of crises.