Systemic forecasting (on the example of nuclear energy). 2nd edition, supplemented. Chernavsky S.Ya.

The book is devoted to one of the most pressing issues of energy science - the development of theory and calculated methods for long -term forecasting the development of artificial industrial systems. The author formulated in the book the task of constructing an optimal predictive system and developed the concept of systemic forecasting, which is corresponding to this task, which takes into account the properties of both the object and the subject of forecasting. To mitigate the negative consequences associated with the uncertainty of the future, the book discusses the tasks of making decisions in conditions of uncertainty with parameters set in interval form.

The development of nuclear energy is considered as an object of forecasting. When solving the problem of energy supply (with the help of nuclear energy), the author illuminates the solution of much more general problems that go far beyond the framework of energy and even economics: the theory of forecasting, the uncertainty of the future, the psychology of human activity, social relations in the conditions of risk of catastrophic large -scale accidents.

The book is of interest not only for those who explore electric power and economics in the conditions of depletion of natural resources, but also for specialists working in the field of system research of energy and economics, theory and methodology of forecasting, risk theory and decision -making In conditions of uncertainty.